Friday, June 3, 2011

Why are Republicans in denial over economics?

I posted this list of how administrations rank for economic growh, from best to worst, and Republicans came up with any number of rationalizations to, er, make it go away. For example, they claimed that the economy depended on Congress -- which is partially true, obviously, but doesn%26#039;t explain why the results here are correlated to the party of the president -- for example compare Clinton with the last two years of Bush. Or they mentioned that correlation isn%26#039;t causation, which of course is true, except that the probability of this ranking being acausal with respect to political affiliation is miniscule. Why do they always come up with excuses to overlook the obvious? It seems to me that it would make more sense to say %26quot;OK, Dems are better for economic growth, we should figure out why and do the same thing.%26quot;



PERCENT CHANGE IN GDP (IN INFLATION ADJUSTED DOLLARS)

1. D FDR (40%26#039;-44%26#039;) 74.69

2. D FDR (32%26#039;-36%26#039;) 34.63

3. D LBJ (64%26#039;-68%26#039;) 21.81

4. D TRUMAN (48%26#039;-52%26#039;) 21.00

5. D JFK (60%26#039;-64%26#039;) 19.86

6. D FDR (36%26#039;-40%26#039;) 19.33

7. D CLINTON (96%26#039;-00%26#039;) 17.87

8. R REAGAN (84%26#039;-88%26#039;) 15.98

9. D CARTER (76%26#039;-80%26#039;) 13.67

10. D CLINTON (92%26#039;-96%26#039;) 13.53

11. R IKE(52%26#039;-56%26#039;) 13.45

12. R REAGAN (80%26#039;-84%26#039;) 12.63

13. R NIXON (68%26#039;-72%26#039;) 12.38

14. R IKE (56%26#039;-60%26#039;) 10.91

15. R FORD (72%26#039;-76%26#039;) 10.62

16. R BUSH SR (88%26#039;-92%26#039;) 8.81

17. R BUSH JR (00%26#039;-04%26#039;) 8.75

18. R BUSH JR (04%26#039;-07%26#039;) 8.35

19. D TRUMAN (44%26#039;-48%26#039;) -9.04

20. R HOOVER (29%26#039;-32%26#039;) -25.60



Original data is at http://www.bea.gov/national/xls/gdplev.x

15 hours ago - 3 days left to answer.



(Reposted because someone censored it)Why are Republicans in denial over economics?republicans are in denial over economics because if they face the truth and reality they have to admit that their boy bush and his cronies have screwed things up horribly!Why are Republicans in denial over economics?These statistics don%26#039;t give the big picture. Like how Clinton had 4 surpluses at the beginning, ended with none and put programs into place that would take years to feel the effects. That has happened many times and is something most Republicans understand. That repub presidents have had to take over just as the economy is in a downward spiral due to the administration before them.



I%26#039;m not a Republican but I don%26#039;t usually vote Democrat either. Because I have looked at history and what each president has done.Why are Republicans in denial over economics?I am not... that is why I know that our Government doesn%26#039;t really have that much to do with the economy.... sure politics (both domestic and global) play a role in things... but they are not the means to the end by any measure... :/





I would wager that it is likely that if the dotcom bubble had happened during one of the Bush terms that they would have had just as big of a GDP.... there are a TON of factors in the economy outside of politics.. :/ Why are Republicans in denial over economics?They are not in denial, they are just devious. Note how they support bail outs for financiers; but, not for manufacturers.Why are Republicans in denial over economics?Why would a % change need to adjusted for inflation, unless of course the raw numbers don%26#039;t seem so compelling...Why are Republicans in denial over economics?Republicans are only good at three things; Economics isn%26#039;t one of them!!Why are Republicans in denial over economics?Republicans keep saying that the Democrats are the spenders, but the facts say the opposite. Bush has spent more than any president in history. That is the thing that I hate most about that party is that most of them live in a fantasy land and they really do need to wake up and see the truth.Why are Republicans in denial over economics?Uh...truth hurts I guess



I don%26#039;t really know that much about GDP and things like that so I%26#039;m just looking at the statisticsWhy are Republicans in denial over economics?could be the reason it was censored is because it is pure b.s ...your facts are mistaken and they are making you look foolish .. congress is the one who makes the laws regarding the money spent, the president just approves or vetoes it ..maybe if you took the time to study the government instead of trying to bash a current president you would be better enlightened ..democrats spend more money on making bigger goverment and then as luck has it ( the US gets tired of free spending ) we elect a conservative president and congress and then the chit hits the fan .that is why you hardly ever have a democrat voted in a second time (other than daddy clinton) do you homework and listen to all people instead of just left wing bullchit artist ...oh and have a great day



oh and your source has also been deleted so go figureWhy are Republicans in denial over economics?You would do just as well to assign party affiliations to the last twenty winners of the Kentucky Derby to try to prove something about party and speed.



What you don%26#039;t get is the basic Truth that %26quot;Connection is not Causation.%26quot;



Ever see the old tv show %26quot;The Beverly Hillbillies%26quot;? Remember how Jed would always remark when he%26#039;d hear the doorbell that %26quot;Every time that music plays, someone comes to the door.%26quot; He figured out the Connection, but hadn%26#039;t yet mastered the Causation.



The fact is that governments don%26#039;t have any positive influence on Economy. The only thing they can do is to create an environment, one that recognizes Private Property, and let individuals do what they do best.



If governments don%26#039;t have any positive effects, then neither can %26quot;factions%26quot;.



So, getting back to Causation. Let%26#039;s look at number 20 on your list, the worst contraction of GDP of all. What caused the Depression?



Economists don%26#039;t actually agree on the answer to that question, and yet you want to pin it on %26quot;faction%26quot;.



Even to attribute the answer to %26quot;faction%26quot;, you%26#039;ve totally ignored the fact that you%26#039;re only measuring a single branch of our federal government. You don%26#039;t have anything about the strength of either faction in Congress, as no president can actually do anything without a willing Congress.



Your numbers are completely meaningless without establishing Causation, which you not only failed to accomplish, you don%26#039;t even seem to be aware of Causation. Why are Republicans in denial over economics?This might be another Republican dismissal, but here goes. How are you going to base the economy on the GDP, and then try to blame that on the party in the White House? First, the economy goes in cycles. Second, where are the affects of war in your list? You have to just throw that 74.69 out the window because of WWII. That was an extrodinary circumstance that we won%26#039;t see again, and it had nothing to do with the party in charge. FDR%26#039;s Presidency was focused on GDP. That is what he promised to do. If the GOP were to shut out the rest of the world and say they were going to get the GDP up, they could do the same thing.



Clinton chose to ignore the problems in Africa and the Middle East, and look what kind of a mess he handed Bush.



The best indicator of economic times is how do the citizens feel. Looking back, we had the roaring %26#039;20s, the %26#039;50s and the %26#039;80s. So about every 30 years we feel good about our economy. Oh look, Coolidge(R), Ike(R) and Reagan(R). So in 5 years or so, we will feel good about things, and Obama will get all the credit, but we will have a Republican in the White House.



Edit: Presidential policy from either party has little to do with the economy. Throwing the GDP up there and trying relate it with presidential policy is just rediculous, again regardless of who is in power. And the president pardons turkeys every year. Dems and Republicans alike.



Thanks for the good laughs here.Why are Republicans in denial over economics?They are too busy. Bush was just on TV petting %26amp; pardoning a turkey. That shows their priorities.Why are Republicans in denial over economics?Theory interprets data and so republicans will always find fault with anti-them data. I still think these statistics are wrong because 1) why is GDP a good measure of economic growth? if hurricanes destroy a good part of the u.s. it increases gdp but i wouldn%26#039;t consider that economic growth! 2) correlation doesn%26#039;t imply causation is a pretty good response and i don%26#039;t think that a probability can likely ever be zip or pure zero. 3) even if the correlation is non-random the gdp measure only tells me that democrats spend more than republicans -no surprise there! 4) inflation adjusted numbers obscure the deleterious effect of inflation and probably hide the extent to which republicans spend!
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